Israel’s election count puts Netanyahu ahead, but the path to 61 remains unclear
Likud remained the largest party with 26 projected seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar stood at 21. The emerging Knesset is fragmented, leaving coalition arithmetic as important as the party rankings.
Israel’s election is turning into a contest not only over which bloc can win the most seats, but over whether either side can assemble a government from a fragmented parliament.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc held 53 projected seats in the latest count on Wednesday afternoon, eight short of a majority in the 120-member Knesset. The bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot stood at 48 seats. Neither side had secured a clear path to power, despite the changing balance between the two camps as votes continued to be counted.
The two Arab parties’ combined projected total is currently at 19 seats.
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Gadi Eisenkot (right) and Benjamin Netanyahu.
(Photos: Jewel SAMAD / AFP, AP Photo/Baz Ratner)
With 85.6% of votes counted, Likud remained the largest party, with 26 projected seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar followed with 21, while the Joint List was projected to win 12 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party 12.
The figures differ from the television exit polls released after voting ended at 10 p.m. Tuesday, which initially indicated a narrow advantage for Eisenkot’s bloc. The partial official count has since put Netanyahu’s allies ahead, though it remains too early to determine whether that position will hold.
The immediate political question is what either side can do with the seats it wins. Netanyahu’s bloc remains short of a majority, while Eisenkot’s camp has an even larger gap to bridge. The results so far establish the relative strength of the parties, but not which combination of them can secure enough parliamentary support to govern.
The smaller parties hold the balance
The emerging Knesset would be divided among a wide range of parties, making coalition negotiations central to the outcome.
The changing tally has also complicated the political narratives offered by the two main camps. Eisenkot declared on election night that voters had chosen change, while Netanyahu pointed to Likud’s position as the largest party and called for unity among Zionist political forces. Neither claim resolves the question of who can secure a majority.
The missing votes could change the picture
A source of uncertainty is the large number of double-envelope ballots, which require additional verification before being included in the national tally. Election officials have prepared for an estimated 600,000 to 650,000 such ballots, including votes cast by soldiers, reservists, diplomats, hospital patients and displaced Israelis.
The estimated volume is equivalent to roughly 15 Knesset seats’ worth of votes, although seats are not allocated separately to this category. Historically, double-envelope ballots have tended to favor Zionist parties across the political spectrum and have sometimes changed the final distribution of seats. Their effect on this election remains unclear.
First published: 09:05, 28.10.26
