AnalysisAssad’s legacy of scorched earth: Rebuilding Syria from the ground up
Analysis
Assad’s legacy of scorched earth: Rebuilding Syria from the ground up
A $400 billion challenge in a nation devastated by war and corruption.
The fall of the Assad regime after 54 years of rule, 24 of which were under President Bashar al-Assad, marks a new era for Syria in particular and the Middle East in general. The regime's collapse in less than two weeks following the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon surprised all players in the region, including the opposition forces themselves.
Since the rebel offensive began, the Syrian army has rarely engaged in combat, instead abandoning its positions and allowing opposition forces to take control of the country’s cities, including the capital, Damascus, on Sunday. The reasons for the army's collapse are not entirely clear but appear to stem from several interrelated factors.
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Rebels celebrate the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus
(Photo: AP Photo/Omar Sanadiki)
First, after 13 years of intermittent fighting since the start of the civil war, the Syrian army was worn out and poorly equipped. More significantly, it was evident that most Syrian military personnel had little desire to defend the regime, seeing no purpose in doing so. Since 2018, when the regime regained control of roughly 70% of the country, President Bashar al-Assad made no serious effort to consolidate support for his rule. He offered no concessions to the opposition and implemented no minor constitutional reforms.
Moreover, the government, constrained by international sanctions, did nothing to ease the economic hardships faced by ordinary Syrians. Instead, it continued exploiting the state’s depleted resources to benefit a small, corrupt elite close to the regime. The soldiers, who were expected to confront the rebel forces, saw no personal or economic benefit in remaining loyal. In recent days, many abandoned their posts and discarded their uniforms rather than risk their lives for a regime that offered them nothing in return.
Assad also misread key developments in the region. He failed to grasp the implications of the events that unfolded after October 7, including Israel’s decisive actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Nor did he account for Russia’s increased focus on its war in Ukraine, which diluted its ability to support Syria. Assad had been confident since 2018 that Iranian and Russian backing, which saved him from the rebels in 2015, would continue indefinitely.
This overconfidence was bolstered by the normalization of relations with key Arab countries that had previously boycotted him. Nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, assuming that Syria had stabilized and Assad’s rule was secure, offered financial incentives for Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League, in the hope of reducing Iran's influence. However, Assad refused to sever ties with Iran, believing he could maintain both alliances simultaneously.
His misjudgment extended to his handling of Turkish overtures. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had sought to mend relations with Damascus to facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees to their homeland. However, Assad demanded that Turkey first cease its support for Islamist factions in northern Syria, not realizing that Turkey was simultaneously preparing military options that would ultimately contribute to his regime's downfall.
The collapse of Assad’s regime also represents a significant blow to Iran’s "Shiite axis" strategy, in which it had heavily invested. With Syria no longer a reliable ally, Iran’s direct access to Lebanon is cut off, leaving Iraq and Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen as its remaining strongholds. This strategic failure could resonate within Iran, fueling domestic unrest amid an already fragile economic situation and potential sanctions from the incoming U.S. administration.
A Monumental Economic Challenge
Once the celebrations over Assad’s ouster subside, Syria’s new leaders will face immense political, security, and economic challenges. The Assad regime has left behind “scorched earth” in virtually every sector.
Economically, Syria will require at least a decade to recover, assuming a stable internal situation can be achieved. Before 2011, Syria’s economy was already weak by regional standards. Today, it lies in ruins. Over the past year, the Syrian pound has lost approximately 140% of its value, and annual inflation has reached 100%. More than 70% of Syrians live below the poverty line, with 25% in extreme poverty—a phenomenon that was rare before the civil war. Notably, over half of those in extreme poverty reside in Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo, and Hama, the first cities targeted by militias en route to liberating Damascus.
Rebuilding Syria is an immense task, with estimated costs exceeding $400 billion due to the widespread destruction of infrastructure, industry, and agriculture. Syria lacks the resources for such reconstruction, making international assistance essential for stability. The Gulf states, along with the European Union and Turkey, have a vested interest in rebuilding Syria to enable the return of millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in their territories.
