AnalysisSaudi Arabia and Israel: Unlikely allies in the Middle East peace process?
Analysis
Saudi Arabia and Israel: Unlikely allies in the Middle East peace process?
Shared interests on Gaza and Syria may drive closer ties, but the Palestinian issue complicates relations.
On the eve of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, with the focus on the Gaza Strip and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, the latter is actually engaged in another pressing issue in the Middle East—Syria. The new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani), arrived for his first visit abroad since the overthrow of the Assad regime less than two months ago, and chose Riyadh for this purpose. Saudi Arabia is the undisputed leader of the Arab world today, and al-Sharaa did not visit just to pay respects to its rulers. He understands well that the substantial funds needed to rebuild Syria are in Saudi Arabia, and that the path to winning over Trump also runs through the Saudis. Al-Sharaa needs Saudi support to convince the new administration to lift sanctions on Syria, which would pave the way for reconstruction. For the Saudis, bringing Syria back into the "Arab fold," after decades of Iranian influence, represents a strategic turning point crucial for shaping a new Middle East.
On the Israeli issue, things are less clear from a Saudi perspective. Despite reports that normalization with Saudi Arabia will be high on the agenda of the talks between Trump and Netanyahu, Riyadh prefers not to publicly engage on the matter. The last statement by a senior Saudi official on this issue came from the ambassador to London, Prince Khalid bin Bandar. He stated last week that the kingdom would not normalize relations with Israel or join Trump's peace agreements without resolving the Palestinian issue, emphasizing that the only solution for Saudi Arabia is the establishment of a Palestinian state. The Saudi ambassador said in an interview with Britain's Radio Times: "We have red lines. To end 75 years of pain and suffering... the solution must include the establishment of a Palestinian state."
1 View gallery
New Syrian President Abu Mohammad al-Julani with Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman in Riyadh
(Photo: Bandar Algaloud Saudi Royal Royal Court/Handout)
This position has remained consistent over the past year. Prior to October 7, there was an impression that the Saudis might accept a general promise regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for military, nuclear, economic, and technological benefits from the United States. However, it now seems that the reality has changed. Given the scale of destruction in the Gaza Strip and the death toll approaching 50,000, the Saudi leadership will find it difficult to reach an agreement with Israel that overlooks the Palestinian issue, given the public sentiment within Saudi society in light of the scenes coming from Gaza over the past 15 months.
In many ways, Saudi Arabia and Israel share overlapping views on the Palestinian issue. The kingdom’s leadership loathes Hamas and will not participate in reconstruction efforts as long as the terrorist organization is part of Gaza’s government. In this regard, the Saudis have past experience. Lebanon, once considered the "Saudis’ playground," has been suffering from a severe economic crisis since 2019, but the Saudis have refrained from offering financial aid while Hezbollah remains in power. There is no reason to believe the Saudis would invest in Gaza if there were any chance that some of that money might reach Hamas. In fact, even before the October 7 war, the Saudis began restoring their relations with the Palestinian Authority. The Saudis even renewed their financial support for the PA’s budget—$10 million per month—and from their perspective, the preferred solution for Gaza would be the return of the PA to the territory. In this regard, they are closer to the Trump administration's position than to Israel's.
Although the Saudis celebrated Trump's victory, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently expressed interest in expanding economic ties with the United States by $600 billion over the next four years, this does not mean they will fully align with him on the Palestinian issue. On Saturday, the Saudis participated in a limited Arab summit in Cairo at the foreign ministers' level and signed a statement that emphatically rejected the idea of transferring Gaza’s residents to other countries, as Trump has suggested multiple times in recent days. This opposition to Trump's immigration plan is also clearly expressed in the Saudi press. For instance, last Thursday, an article was published in the newspaper Okaz, whose editor-in-chief is considered close to the Crown Prince, under the headline: "Immigration is not the solution." The article emphasized that "any call to uproot or expel the residents of Gaza constitutes a violation of international law and humanitarian law." The article, which could not have been written without royal approval, added: "Therefore, what is required now is to adhere to the ceasefire and complete the prisoner exchange process, and then consider the fate and future of the Gaza Strip, which has become a pile of rubble."
In other words, the Saudis prefer to work with the Trump administration to find a solution for the future governance of Gaza as part of a broader resolution to the Palestinian issue, which would not involve transferring Gaza’s residents. This approach could increase the chances of a long-awaited normalization agreement with Israel and potentially improve Trump’s chances of achieving his goal of winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
